European nations are nervously eyeing the nail-biting US election.
Brussels: European nations are jittery ahead of a tumultuous US election that will see either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris take a very different approach to the White House.
Trump has threatened to dismantle NATO, strike a quick deal with Russia over Ukraine and impose trade tariffs if he wins the presidential election in November.
Harris has stressed the importance of NATO and denounced Trump’s tariffs as a hidden sales tax.
It’s no secret that most European officials would prefer a more predictable Democratic vice president rather than an unstable Republican at such a dangerous moment.
Ahead of the vote, here are some of the biggest concerns for Europe:
NATO
Trump stoked the firestorm during the campaign by saying he would encourage Russia to do “whatever it takes” because NATO members weren’t spending enough on defense.
The former reality TV star’s comments were the latest to rattle the alliance that has underpinned Europe’s security for 75 years.
After enduring four years of Trump, NATO diplomats say the nightmare prospect of Washington’s exit is still far from over.
To deflect his criticism, European countries have boosted their increased defense spending since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
This year, 23 of NATO’s 32 members are set to hit a target of 2 percent of gross domestic product – up from three a decade ago.
“This is the Trumpian way of doing business, it’s the way he says it, but it’s a perfectly reasonable message on the need for Europe to do more,” said one European diplomat.
If Harris wins, the attitude toward NATO will be significantly warmer. She has reiterated President Joe Biden’s pledge to stand firmly with U.S. allies.
But even under Harris’ leadership, European countries are expected to come under heavy pressure to increase defense spending.
And as the United States becomes more focused on its rivalry with China, it seems Europe will somehow have to take more responsibility for its own security in the long run.
Ukraine
While European officials hope they can prevent Trump from weakening NATO, more questions are being raised about U.S. support for Ukraine.
The United States and EU countries have heavily backed Kiev in what is seen by many in Europe as an existential struggle for the continent’s security.
While European countries have jointly provided about $130 billion, Washington alone has given $90 billion, according to a tracker by the Kiel Institute.
Former President Trump has cast doubt on US help for Ukraine and insisted he could strike a deal with Russian leader Vladimir Putin to end the war in a day.
European officials say they would try to keep Ukraine afloat if Trump withdrew from the deal, but that would only help Kiev until it was forced to accept the deal. “But I’m not sure Trump will back down. He may call Putin, but he may not get the deal he wants and decide to fully support Ukraine, one diplomat said. “You never know with him.”
Like Biden, Harris has pledged to maintain Washington’s firm support for Kyiv.
But European diplomats say she will likely not be as personally invested as Biden, and as the war drags into its third year, demands for some way to end it will grow.
Trade
The EU believes it will be ready for war this time if Trump wins and follows through on threats to impose tariffs on imports to the United States.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive branch in charge of trade policy, has set up a team to draw up plans for a Harris or Trump victory.
“The EU is better prepared for another Trump administration,” one EU diplomat said. However, the team is preparing for different scenarios and “unlike last time, we have different trade tools”, the diplomat said.
There has been much talk about a “list” of US products the EU could tariff, but European officials and diplomats say this would be a last resort.
The first test for the EU and the United States under any new administration will come in March, when a ceasefire related to US steel and aluminium tariffs expires.
Trump imposed high tariffs on steel and aluminium coming from several countries in 2018, leading to a huge surge in EU exports. When Biden came to power, he kept the tariffs in place, but allowed suspensions for EU exporters.
The EU diplomat said Brussels fears Trump will impose higher tariffs, while Harris, though unlikely to soften, will maintain a “dialogue in good faith.”
“Under a Harris administration there will be a continued focus on trying to find those areas of cooperation while trying to avoid unnecessary conflict,” said Greta Piesch, former general counsel to the U.S. Trade Representative.
Piesch, now a partner at US law firm Wiley, told AFP Harris would represent the “continuity” of Biden’s administration, adding that under Trump, it could be more complicated.
“I think there were areas of cooperation, but in the Trump administration, there was also more of a willingness to be confrontational on trade issues.”
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