Before Trump Talks, Saudi Arabia Doubles Down on Conditions for Israel Normalization

Saudi Arabia Sets Tougher Terms for Israel Normalization Ahead of Trump Talks

Riyadh/Washington:
As former U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to discuss the possibility of normalizing ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, officials and regional sources say the chances of a breakthrough remain slim when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) visits the White House later this month.

Establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia after decades of hostility could reshape the Middle East’s political and security landscape — and bolster U.S. influence in the region. Trump said last month that he expects Saudi Arabia to “join very soon” the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with several Arab nations.

However, Riyadh has reportedly made clear through diplomatic channels that its stance remains unchanged: no deal without a credible roadmap toward a Palestinian state, two Gulf sources told Reuters. The kingdom’s goal, they said, is to avoid any diplomatic missteps and ensure alignment with Washington before any public statements, particularly ahead of the November 18 White House meeting.

“MBS is unlikely to formalize ties without at least a credible path toward Palestinian statehood,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence official for the Middle East, now with the Atlantic Council in Washington. He added that the crown prince will likely use his influence with Trump to push for “clearer and stronger support for the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.”

A Landmark Visit Under the Shadow of Khashoggi

The visit marks MBS’s first trip to Washington since the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of the crown prince whose death inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul triggered global outrage. MBS has denied direct involvement.

The UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have already normalized relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, and Trump has repeatedly expressed optimism about expanding the framework.
“Many nations are joining the Abraham Accords,” Trump said on November 5. “Hopefully, we’ll soon bring Saudi Arabia into it too.”

Yet, unlike those earlier agreements, Riyadh insists that any normalization with Israel must include concrete progress toward Palestinian sovereignty. As the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites in Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia views recognition of Israel as a deeply sensitive national security issue, one closely tied to resolving the decades-old Arab-Israeli conflict.

Public sentiment across the Arab world remains wary of Israel, especially amid its ongoing military operations in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attacks in southern Israel. Saudi officials have repeatedly called for Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, the deployment of an international peacekeeping force, and the restoration of Palestinian Authority governance in the territory — prerequisites, they say, for any durable peace.

Analysts say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s firm opposition to Palestinian statehood makes Trump’s hopes of an imminent Saudi-Israel deal highly unlikely.

Focus Shifts to U.S.-Saudi Defense Pact

Saudi officials are instead seeking to focus the Trump–MBS meeting on defense cooperation and investment, wary that normalization with Israel could dominate the agenda.

A scaled-back defense agreement is expected to be signed during the visit — a deal that would define the scope of U.S. military protection for the world’s largest oil exporter and reinforce America’s presence in the Gulf.

Unlike the full treaty requiring U.S. congressional approval that Riyadh once sought, the current arrangement resembles an executive-level framework, similar to one signed with Qatar in September. It expands cooperation in advanced defense technology while including clauses that could later evolve into a binding treaty.

“This may not be the treaty Saudi Arabia wanted, but it’s a step toward one,” said David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The talks also reflect a shifting regional calculus. With Iran’s military capabilities weakened by Israeli strikes and its regional proxies — Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis — under pressure, the urgency for a NATO-style security pact has diminished.

Still, Washington may include conditions restricting Saudi Arabia’s deepening defense and technology ties with China, part of a broader effort to balance Riyadh’s strategic autonomy with U.S. security guarantees.

The agreement is also expected to accelerate U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia and streamline joint military exercises, bypassing the political and procedural hurdles that slowed previous deals.

“Since October 7, the tone and context of U.S.-Saudi talks have fundamentally changed,” said Abdelaziz al-Sager, head of the Gulf Research Center in Jeddah. “Saudi Arabia’s national security priorities must now be addressed independently, even as they remain tied to progress on the Palestinian issue.”