Oil prices fluctuate after report and U.S. denial of strike plans on Venezuela

Oil prices spiked following media reports suggesting that U.S. airstrikes on Venezuela could begin within hours, but fell again after President Donald Trump denied the reports on social media.

As of 11:12 a.m. CDT (1612 GMT), Brent crude futures were up 6 cents, or 0.09%, at $65.06 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 7 cents, or 0.12%, to $60.50 per barrel.

Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, remarked, “Is this one of Donald Trump’s moves—or a bluff?” He recalled that Trump had previously denied reports of planned airstrikes on Iran before the Islamic Republic was eventually targeted.

“When the initial reports of a possible strike on Venezuela emerged, the market definitely reacted,” Flynn said. “If an attack happens over the weekend, prices could rise sharply on Monday.”

The United States has deployed a task force near its largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, off Venezuela’s coast—far exceeding the needs of counter-narcotics operations against small boats, which have been the primary focus of recent U.S. naval activity in the Caribbean.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar hovered near a three-month high against major currencies, making dollar-priced commodities like oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Sources told Reuters that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may lower crude prices for Asian buyers in December to their lowest levels in months—a signal of weakening demand.

Oil prices also came under pressure after official data showed China’s factory activity contracted for a seventh straight month in October.

Brent and WTI are on track for monthly declines of about 2.6% and 2%, respectively, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major non-OPEC producers continue to ramp up output.

The increased supply has also blunted the impact of Western sanctions that have disrupted Russian oil exports to top buyers China and India.

A Reuters survey projected Brent crude to average $67.99 per barrel in 2025—about 38 cents higher than last month’s estimate—while WTI is expected to average $64.83, up slightly from September’s $64.39 forecast.

People familiar with discussions said OPEC+ is leaning toward a modest production increase in December ahead of the group’s upcoming meeting.

According to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose in August to a six-month high of 6.407 million barrels per day.

A U.S. Energy Information Administration report also showed record-high domestic production of 13.6 million barrels per day last week.

On Thursday, Trump said China had agreed to begin purchasing U.S. energy, potentially including a large-scale transaction involving oil and gas from Alaska. However, analysts remain skeptical about whether the U.S.-China trade deal will translate into a significant rise in Chinese demand for American energy.