Analysts Say Fire at Aluminum Plant Could Cost Ford Up to $1 Billion in Profits

A fire at an aluminum plant in New York could reduce Ford Motor Co.’s earnings by as much as $1 billion, analysts at Evercore ISI said in a note on Wednesday, warning that production of the company’s F-150 pickup trucks may be disrupted for months.

The blaze, which broke out on September 16 at a Novelis facility, is expected to affect much of the plant’s operations through the first quarter of 2026, the company told Reuters. The disruption could constrain the supply of aluminum for Ford’s best-selling F-150 trucks, potentially impacting production schedules through the end of the year.

Following reports of the fire, shares of the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker fell nearly 6% on Tuesday.

“Novelis is one of several aluminum suppliers to Ford. Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis, and a dedicated team is exploring every possible option to manage the situation and minimize any potential disruption,” a company spokesperson said in a statement. Ford declined to comment on the Evercore note.

The supply-chain setback marks the latest challenge for Ford, which is still contending with high steel and aluminum prices, a volatile business environment, and a fragile supplier base recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2023 union strike.

Analysts said that while other automakers may face some ripple effects, Ford is expected to bear the brunt of the impact.

“We believe this is primarily a Ford issue at the moment, though we continue to assess potential implications for Stellantis and Toyota,” Evercore’s Chris McNally wrote in the note, estimating that the fire could cut Ford’s EBIT by $500 million to $1 billion.

Ford began using an aluminum body for its F-150 trucks more than a decade ago in an effort to reduce weight and improve fuel efficiency. The automaker is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings later this month.