World Bank Raises China’s 2025 GDP Growth Forecast to 4.8% Amid Fears of a Global Slowdown
The World Bank has raised its forecast for China’s 2025 GDP growth to 4.8%, citing stronger-than-expected performance this year, even as it warned that momentum is likely to slow next year amid weaker consumer and business confidence and softening export orders.
In its biannual East Asia and Pacific Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the Bank said it now expects China’s economy to grow 4.2% in 2026, compared with the 4.0% forecast made in April for both years.
“The region’s largest economy, China, is expected to face a slowdown in growth,” the report noted, “driven by a projected decline in export expansion, a likely reduction in fiscal stimulus amid rising public debt, and ongoing structural headwinds.”
For the rest of East Asia and the Pacific, the World Bank raised its 2025 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4%, while maintaining its 2026 projection at 4.5%.
The report attributed the overall moderation to higher trade barriers, global policy uncertainty, and sluggish worldwide demand, adding that political and policy uncertainty in Indonesia and Thailand had further dampened investor sentiment.
“Businesses are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach,” the report said, “postponing or scaling back capital expenditures.”
The global economy has come under renewed strain this year amid shifting U.S. economic policies, with export-driven Asian economies particularly vulnerable to President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade agenda.
Recent data showed that China’s industrial output and retail sales grew at their slowest pace in nearly a year in September, underscoring that the world’s second-largest economy remains far from a robust recovery.
Analysts expect Beijing to roll out additional stimulus measures to counter the slowdown and help meet its annual “around 5%” growth target.
The World Bank urged countries in the region to focus on long-term reforms rather than relying solely on short-term fiscal measures, warning that the latter “may deliver less durable growth benefits than deeper domestic reforms.”
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