OPEC+ Poised for New Output Hike as Saudi Arabia and Russia Clash Over Scale

OPEC+ is preparing for another oil production hike amid a dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia over the size of the increase, according to sources familiar with the talks.

Four people with knowledge of the discussions said that eight OPEC+ members could announce additional output on Sunday. Group leader Saudi Arabia is pushing for a larger increase to capture more market share, while Russia favors a smaller rise.

The two biggest producers in the alliance, Saudi Arabia and Russia, have clashed repeatedly in recent years over the scale of output hikes but have always managed to reach a compromise.

According to two sources, Moscow is proposing that the group raise output by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November—the same level as October’s increase—in order to avoid further pressure on oil prices and because sanctions make it difficult for Russia to ramp up production.

Saudi Arabia, however, would prefer to double, triple, or even quadruple that figure—274,000, 411,000, or 548,000 barrels per day respectively—arguing it has the capacity to boost production quickly and wants to strengthen its market position.

OPEC said Tuesday it has no plans to add 500,000 barrels per day and has not commented further. Officials from Saudi Arabia and Russia also did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

OPEC+ reversed its earlier output-cut strategy in April, aiming to regain market share and responding to pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to lower fuel prices.

At its peak, the alliance’s total production cuts stood at 5.85 million barrels per day, spread across three layers: 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts, 1.65 million barrels per day from eight members, and 2.0 million barrels per day across the wider group.

The eight producers plan to fully phase out the 2.2 million-barrel voluntary cuts by the end of September. For October, they began unwinding the second tier of 1.65 million barrels per day with a 137,000 barrel increase.

Two sources said the eight countries will hold an online meeting on Sunday.

Goldman Sachs said Tuesday it expects OPEC+ to raise its quota by about 140,000 barrels per day.

The prospect of more supply weighed heavily on oil markets, with prices recording a weekly loss of more than 7% on Friday. Brent crude held just above $64 a barrel, still higher than April’s 2025 low of around $58.

The broader OPEC+ group’s 2 million-barrel daily cut is scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026.