Oil Heads for Sharpest Weekly Decline in Over Three Months

Oil prices rose sharply on Friday after four straight sessions of losses, but they remain on track for their steepest weekly drop since late June amid expectations that OPEC+ may increase production further despite supply concerns.

Brent crude futures climbed 43 cents, or 0.7%, to $64.54 a barrel by 0500 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $60.89 a barrel.

On a weekly basis, Brent is down 8% and WTI has fallen 7.4%.

Sources told Reuters this week that Saudi Arabia is seeking to reclaim market share, and OPEC+ may agree in November to raise oil production by as much as 500,000 barrels per day—triple the October increase.

“If OPEC+ announces an additional 500,000 barrels per day this weekend, it would be a large enough increase to drive crude prices lower again, initially toward $58.00 and possibly down to this year’s lows around $55.00,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

Analysts note that a potential supply hike from OPEC+, combined with refinery slowdowns due to maintenance and a seasonal dip in demand, is likely to accelerate crude stock builds in the U.S. and elsewhere.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all rose last week as refinery activity and demand weakened.

JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note: “We believe September marked a turning point, with the oil market now heading into a significant surplus through Q4 2025 and into next year.”

Meanwhile, finance ministers of the Group of Seven nations said on Wednesday they would take new measures to increase pressure on Russia, targeting countries that continue to facilitate purchases of Russian oil.