US Elections 2024: One area where a Trump presidency would likely impact India-US ties is trade.
New Delhi: With Donald Trump likely to return to the White House, questions are being raised about how a second Trump administration could impact India-US ties. As a candidate, Trump has made it clear that he intends to reshape US foreign policy with a focus on “America First” principles. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar recently said that regardless of whether either Trump and Kamala Harris win, the US is likely to become more isolationist.
The camaraderie between Trump and PM Modi, which was on full display during high-profile events such as “Howdy, Modi!” and “Namaste Trump”, was the cornerstone of India-US ties during the billionaire’s presidency.
For India, a key strategic partner for the US, the prospect of a Trump 2.0 presidency presents both opportunities and challenges across several key dimensions: trade, immigration, military cooperation, and diplomacy.
India-US Trade Relations
In simple terms, Trump’s foreign policy approach is to prioritise US interests and minimise entanglements in international agreements. During his first term, he exited or revised key international agreements, including the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran Nuclear Deal. In Trump’s second term, such policies could continue to disrupt traditional US alliances and agreements, including with India.
One area where Trump’s presidency is likely to impact India-US relations is trade. Last month, Trump alleged that India imposes the highest tariffs on foreign products and vowed to impose reciprocal taxes if he comes to power.
“Probably the most important element of my plan to make America extraordinarily prosperous again is reciprocity. That’s a word that’s very important in my plan because we generally don’t impose tariffs. I started that process, it was great, with vans and small trucks and so on. We don’t really impose tariffs. China would charge us 200 percent tariffs. Brazil is a big charger. The biggest charger is India,” Trump said. “India is a very big charger. We have a very good relationship with India. I had one. And especially the leader, Modi. He’s a great leader. Great guy. Really great guy. He’s brought it together. He’s done a great job. But he probably charges the same amount.”
The Trump administration’s potential tariff policies could impact India’s IT, pharmaceutical and textile sectors, all of which are dependent on the US market. On the other hand, Trump’s continued effort to decouple from China could open up new avenues for India to establish itself as a manufacturing hub, attracting US businesses that are aiming to diversify supply chains away from China.
Immigration: Impact on Indian workforce
Trump’s restrictive stance on immigration, particularly the H-1B visa programme, has historically impacted Indian professionals. His first administration attempted to raise salary requirements for foreign workers and impose additional restrictions, creating challenges for Indian IT professionals and technology firms. These measures, if re-imposed, could impact the Indian talent pool in the US and affect tech firms that rely on skilled Indian workers.
“I think Trump will have some tough conversations on trade and immigration, although on many other issues he has spoken of a very positive relationship with India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” Mr Jaishankar told news agency PTI.
Military ties and defence cooperation
Defence and military cooperation have been the cornerstone of India-US relations in recent years. Defence deals such as the landmark Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (ICET) and the GE-HAL agreement to manufacture jet engines have been some of the highlights of India-US relations under Joe Biden’s administration. Trump’s stance towards NATO suggests that he may adopt a similarly cautious approach towards military agreements as well, though India-US military cooperation may continue due to the shared goal of countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Trump’s previous term also saw the rise of the Quad – an alliance between the US, India, Japan and Australia aimed at counteracting China. Defence cooperation may be further enhanced with arms sales, technology transfers and joint military exercises in a renewed Trump administration.
On the counter-terrorism front, Trump’s “peace through strength” approach may suit India’s security objectives. India has long been seeking a tougher US stance on Pakistan, especially in addressing terrorist activities along its borders.
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