2023–2024 Budget Economic Survey News The Economic Survey of India is presented to Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in advance of Budget 2023. Economic growth predictions for FY22 and FY23 are included in the publication.
Updates to the Economic Survey 2023: The Indian government’s annual pre-budget economic review was today presented to Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. According to the Economic Survey’s baseline scenario, India’s GDP growth is expected to be between 6 and 8.8% in FY24. In three years, this would be the slowest. For 2023–2024, nominal growth is probably expected to reach 11%. The Survey stated that India will continue to have the fastest-growing economy in the upcoming fiscal year despite warnings about above-target inflation, a widening current account deficit, and currency depreciation.
Economic Survey 2023:
Reiterating the nation’s solid macroeconomic fundamentals “We remain optimistic about the performance of the Indian economy, and consequently, the real estate sector, in 2023, on the strength of sustained domestic consumption, ongoing structural reforms, and improved capital expenditure,” the report states. The economic survey’s forecast for FY2023–24 of 6–6,8% growth confirms the nation’s sound macroeconomic foundations. The report acknowledged the role that unmet demand had in helping India’s economy recover from the pandemic, which was also reflected in the surge in the property market.
It also predicted that despite global challenges, India’s economy would continue to grow at the highest rate in the world, but it also raised a warning due to the ongoing monetary tightening exercise given the entrenched inflation.
Forecasts in the Economic Survey are cautiously optimistic.
With a tentative global macroeconomic recovery, declining energy prices/inflation, and a rebound in private sector investment in the days ahead, the survey rightly foresees that the pitch will ease. Additionally, it draws attention to a peculiar doosra ball that must be controlled in the form of a balance of payments deficit and assistance with the consumption at the base of the pyramid. India has transformed from being the facilitator (follower) of global growth to its engine (leader). The course of that voyage is shown by an economic survey. The execution on the ground will decide how quickly that journey proceeds.
Economic Survey 2023: An extended period of widening CAD is concerning
According to economic surveys, consumption and investment will drive India’s growth in the medium term at a robust rate. And in the long run, the growth might reach 7 to 8 percent. The Indian economy’s fundamentals are strong, but in the short to medium term, a persistently expanding current account deficit is concerning and could have an impact on both growth and the depreciation of the INR. Due to a short-term downturn in the economy, high core inflation, and a fiscal deficit, it will be difficult to plan out the expenditures for the budget in FY24.
Economic Survey 2023: Inflation is currently within the target set by the RBI
Ramesh Nair, CEO for India and Managing Director for Market Development in Asia at Colliers, commented on the Economic Survey 2023 by saying, “The Economic Survey 2023 gives a positive picture of India’s economic performance and prognosis, notwithstanding looming global recessionary fears. The economy has mostly recovered from the epidemic, and GDP growth in FY2024 is predicted to be 6.5%. Growth is projected to be driven by strong domestic demand and an increase in capital expenditure. Interestingly, after a year of efforts to reduce it, inflation is finally within the RBI’s objective. The repo rate was raised by the RBI by 225 basis points in 2022.
The RBI might have some leeway to hold repo rates steady over the coming months because to the lower inflation levels. Homebuyers, particularly those in the inexpensive and mid-range segments, will benefit from the likelihood of steady home loan rates and a respite from the housing market. According to the report, out of the 50 cities examined, 46 saw an increase in the index, while 4 saw a fall, on a yearly basis. The home price index rose annually in all eight of the nation’s main cities. Future home prices remain stable, driven by consistent demand that is anticipated to continue until 2023.
Economic Survey 2023: The tightening cycle could last for a while
According to the survey, the tightening cycle may continue to be protracted, which would result in higher interest rates for a longer length of time. All eyes are now focused on the budget, which, given the borrowing programme that will be published tomorrow, could influence the economic trajectory as well as the direction of interest rates. The gross borrowing figures, which should total Rs 16 lakh crore, are crucial to monitor.
Economic Survey 2023: The growth forecast for FY24 is a little too optimistic.
The economic survey predicted growth of 6 to 6.8% for FY 2024. Given the fact that there is a global recession, particularly in exports, this seems a little overstated. It also occurs at a time when domestic demand is initially slowing down and we need to exercise fiscal restraint, particularly after nearly 3 years of fiscal breach (globally as well) caused by the epidemic phase.
Economic Survey 2023 Live: India could reach its $5 trillion economic goal soon The economic report for 2022–2023 provides evidence that India-specific triggers are in line with long-term economic growth. India is anticipated to register a growth rate of 6–6,8% in FY24, which would be the fastest among the major global economies notwithstanding the global headwinds. Long-term economic development is projected to be boosted by a number of structural variables, including PLIs, FTAs, alternative technologies and fuels, domestic demand, and strong consumer, corporate, and bank balance sheets. The demand side of the economy appears to be unaffected by the decline in inflation, which is further supported by a recovery in the private capex cycle and rising public sector investment.
Live Economic Survey 2023: CEA Nageswaran’s final remarks
There were rumours that India had deindustrialized too soon. According to CEA Anantha Nageswaran, India has not industrialised to a sufficient degree.
Economic Survey 2023 Live: Given the challenges, growth forecasts are encouraging.
Given the challenges associated with the global slowdown, “the growth predictions for the Indian economy offer consolation. According to Vikas Vasal, National Managing Partner – Tax, Grant Thornton Bharat, “the Budget is likely to build upon this momentum through policy reforms, a consistent and predictable tax regime, measures to strengthen the investment eco-system, including for start-ups, and reductions in compliances, disputes, and litigation for businesses and individuals.”
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