Vietnam’s Economy Expands 8.22% in Q3 Despite U.S. Tariffs

Vietnam’s economy grew at an annual rate of 8.22% in the third quarter, the government said on Sunday — accelerating from 7.96% in the previous quarter, even after the United States imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports.

Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang said in a government statement that this was the strongest quarterly growth since 2011, excluding the post-pandemic rebound in 2022.

Vietnam’s total trade turnover — combining imports and exports — surpassed $680 billion in the first nine months of this year, up 17% from a year earlier, the government said. During the same period, the country recorded a trade surplus of $16.8 billion.

The Sunday release did not include detailed trade data, a key indicator given that the 20% U.S. import tariff, imposed by the Trump administration on most Vietnamese goods, took effect mid-quarter on August 7. The National Statistics Office is expected to release a full set of economic and trade data on Monday.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said last month that Vietnam expects its exports to grow by more than 12% this year. However, a UN Development Programme (UNDP) report warned that the new U.S. tariffs could reduce Vietnam’s exports to the United States by as much as one-fifth, potentially making it the hardest-hit economy in Southeast Asia.

The Vietnamese government and its Ministry of Trade have said they will continue negotiations with the United States to address the tariff issue.

The third quarter also saw severe weather disruptions, with eight storms striking the country — including Typhoon Bualoi, which caused estimated losses of 16.5 trillion dong ($625.5 million).

According to the government, GDP for the first nine months of the year rose 7.84% compared with the same period in 2024.

Vietnam is targeting annual GDP growth between 8.3% and 8.5%, outpacing last year’s 7.09% expansion and exceeding forecasts by both the World Bank (6.6%) and the International Monetary Fund (6.5%).

However, the government cautioned that economic pressures and sluggish global recovery could challenge growth in 2025. The statement also warned of an increase in natural disasters that may worsen in the final months of the year.

Consumer prices rose 3.27% year-on-year in the January–September period, while inflation in September stood at 3.38%, the government said.

(US$1 = 26,380 dong)