Ukraine-Russia War 2022 – 23 | What is Main Impact of this War ?
Background
Ukraine-Russia relations continued after 1991. Ukraine signed the NPT and destroyed USSR’s nuclear weapons in 1994. The Budapest Memorandum protected Ukraine. Russia joined the 1999 Charter for European Security “reaffirming the vital freedom of every participating state to establish or amend its security arrangements, including alliance treaties”. After the USSR collapsed, Eastern Bloc nations joined NATO. The 1993 Russian constitutional crisis, War in Abkhazia (1992–1993), and First Chechen War influenced this (1994–1996). Russia said the West ensured NATO wouldn’t march east, which is unlikely. Ukraine and Georgia requested NATO membership in Bucharest in 2008. Reactions varied. Western Europe feared upsetting Russia. Ukraine and Georgia would join the coalition after being rejected. Putin vowed to block NATO membership.
Putin declined Zelenskyy’s 2021 high-level meeting. After that, the Russian government endorsed former president Dmitry Medvedev’s article declaring Ukraine a US “vassal” and ignoring it. The Crimea takeover boosted Russian nationalism. Russian neo-imperialists seek Novorossiya and Ukraine. “Manifesto of Greater-Russia Irredentism” was Putin’s 2014 address. He asserted Russians and Ukrainians were always “one people.” Tim Snyder labelled Putin’s ideals “imperialism.” “Rewriting history,” claimed British journalist Edward Lucas. Russia’s judgement of Ukraine’s past and present is criticised.
When Russia-Ukraine War started?
President Vladimir Putin of Russia ordered an invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. Putin dubbed the bombing a “special military operation,” indicating its scope. This shows that Moscow wanted to quickly seize as much of the eastern half to two-thirds of the country as possible and conquer Kyiv, possibly overthrowing the government.
STAGES OF WAR
March-may
Since March 2022, Russian troops have dealt with Ukrainian opposition. Russian military altered. It increased unit cohesion and combined arms formations. Artillery, rockets, and air support surged. Russian forces moved steadily but suffered heavy losses. 66 On March 7, 2022, the U.S. believed Russia had sent “almost all” its forces to Ukraine. Unguided guns were used in most VKS operations. The VKS lost modern helicopters, fighters, and fighter bombers as missions grew. The Russians appeared to be fighting on numerous fronts at this point. They advanced in various directions. Russia attacked Kyiv’s northern defences from the northwest and east. Russia invaded Kharkiv and Izyum. Russia struck southwest Mykolaiv and southeast Mariupol. In mid-March 2022, the Ukrainian military counterattacked on most fronts, halting Russian offensives outside Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Mykolaiv. Ukraine destroyed Russian assets like Kherson airport and Berdyansk port. Russian offensives around Kyiv ended in March 2022. Ukrainian counterattacks defeated the Russians. Russia was modifying its plans to take Ukraine south and east because it wasn’t winning rapidly. On March 25, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that Russia had mostly fulfilled its first goals and will move on to eastern Ukraine, including the Donbas. Russia withdrew from Chernihiv and Kyiv. Analysts felt this freed units for eastern offensives.
Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser, claimed, “Russia is attacking eastern and southern Ukraine. Russia may encircle and crush eastern Ukrainian soldiers.” Putin stated on April 12 that Russia’s military action would continue till completion. Ukrainian guerilla strikes were harder due to Russian artillery in the Donbas. Despite the Donbas focus, observers worry about Russia’s bigger goals. In an April 22, 2022 interview, Major General Rustam Minnekayev, the deputy commander of the Central Military District, said Russia wanted to dominate eastern and southern Ukraine, including a land connection to Transnistria, a separatist Moldovan entity Russia supports. Since Russia lacks the soldiers to take over Odessa and combine with Transnistria, many feel this remark shows its long-term geopolitical goals. 84. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, declared on April 18 that Russia had launched its offensive in the Donbas after firing many missiles against Ukraine. Russian soldiers cautiously attacked Ukrainian positions with heavy artillery and rocket weapons.
After exhausting its combat-effective units, Russia left Kyiv to rest and resupply in eastern Ukraine. Analysts said Russia needed more people to compensate for losses and improve future offensives. Russia had to replace them from overseas bases. The Wagner Private Military Company monitors and aids DNR/LNR forces for Russia. On May 9, Russia’s Victory Day, many expected Putin to declare war and mobilise. Russian reserves and conscripts may fight. No party announcement. “President Putin, “we believe, intends to wage a protracted war in Ukraine, during which he still seeks to achieve aims outside the Donbas,”
By July, the U.S. sent Ukraine M270 MLRS and M142 HMARS (HIMARS). These enhanced UAF accuracy and range. U.S. and other analysts claim the UAF is effectively targeting Russian command and control, logistical, and transportation infrastructure with these systems. The UAF has received various Western systems with different standards and needs, a serious concern. After Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, Russian forces took an “operational respite” in July. Most assumed Russia needed time to repair, replenish, and reorganise after exhausting its forces. Russian forces hardly advanced between Siversk and Bakhmut in the following weeks. They concentrated on upkeep. Russia increasingly relied on Wagner PMC and DNR/LNR forces to find UAF lines and direct artillery and rockets. According to open-source accounts, Russian morale was low and more soldiers were refusing to fight, quitting before being deployed overseas, or violating instructions.
The Russians stalled in early August 2022, starting an attrition war. Russia used PMC and LNR/DNR forces to attack Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Pisky. UAF appeared ready to attack. Ukraine killed Russian leaders, and government facilities, including Crimean air bases and supply points. The Russian military must send more troops to fight insurgencies and safeguard its people due to Ukrainian Special Forces, local friends, drones, and missiles.
International experts worry about Russia’s military supervision of Europe’s largest nuclear plant, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Some scholars call nuclear power facility strikes “war crimes” under international law. To “examine the physical damage to the ZNPP’s facilities, verify whether the main and backup safety and security systems were functional, and evaluate the staff’s working conditions,” the IAEA reports that Russia and Ukraine contemplated sending an expert expedition to ZNPP. On September 1st, the plant was examined by the IAEA. Six IAEA inspectors stayed. Two inspectors will permanently watch the factory. The UAF prepared to counterattack Kherson and Crimea. They sought to weaken Russia and make restocking Kherson harder. They attacked logistics assets and southern Ukraine bridges from seized Kherson. By September 8, U.S. Milley reported nearly 400 HIMARS strikes by Ukraine. Attacking inaccessible depots stressed Russian logistics and artillery ammunition.
Oct- Jan
Ukrainian soldiers flew the Ukrainian flag at a Lyman municipal entry on October 1. Russia lost Lyman late afternoon. Zelenskyy said Ukrainian troops retook Yampil near Lyman. In Kharkiv, Russia killed 24, 13 of them children, according to Kyiv. Ramzan Kadyrov asked Putin for martial law and low-yield nuclear weapons. Russia left Lyman due to communication and supply concerns. CNN stated on October 6th that “US intelligence authorities” suspect “members of the Ukrainian government” of Darya Dugina’s car explosion. Ukrainians unearthed two mass graves after seizing Lyman. Seven Russian rockets damaged an apartment building in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. Three died and 12 were injured. October 9 saw 17 deaths, including a toddler. Ukraine downed 20 drones in 24 hours on October 7. October 8’s Crimean Bridge explosion killed three. Six Russian missiles targeted a Zaporizhzhia housing complex on October 9. 13 died and 90 were injured. By October, drones and UAVs targeted the Russian-occupied Sevastopol Naval Base. Russian officials report shooting down nine UAVs and seven USVs. Russia said Britain planned the attacks. The UK Ministry of Defense called Russia “epic-sized liars.” [159] Russia left the Black Sea Grain Initiative after the incident. Returning four days later. [160] After the Moskva sank, recordings showed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet leader, Admiral Makarov, injured.
Early November saw Russia’s partial mobilisation. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, Ukroboronprom will make Soviet-era 152mm and 122mm rounds. Putin legalised dangerous felons from joining the Russian army. Sex crimes against children and state crimes including treason, spying, and terrorism bar army service. “Hundreds of thousands” may gather. Russia launched 85–100 missiles at Ukrainian cities by mid-November. The strategic bombardment has left several cities without electricity or water. Ukrainian aircraft shot down 77 of 96 Russian missiles. Pentagon officials believe Russia intends to degrade Ukraine’s air defences. 50 rockets fought Poland “within minutes”. Poland’s Przewodów missile killed two. Polish leaders gathered immediately. The US felt the missile was a Ukrainian air defence missile fired at a Russian missile going their way. Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported rocket and artillery attacks on Russian positions on the Dnipro River’s left bank and near the Kinburn Spit. EU President Ursula von der Leyen demanded a UN war crimes inquiry of Russia on November 30th. The European Commission has recommended two approaches to hold Russia accountable: a treaty-based court or a multi-nation international court. She stated the fight cost Ukraine 600 billion Euros. She arranged payment. She said the EU froze 300 billion euros of Russian central bank reserves and 20 billion euros of oligarchs’ money. She advised investment. After sanctions, Ukraine may get funds. The conflict killed 100,000 Ukrainian military and 20,000 civilians, according to Ursula von der Leyen. Furious Ukrainian military authorities claimed the death toll was classified. The European Commission removed this from von der Leyen’s address video. The speech’s official text omitted numbers.
Two Russian airbases erupted in early December. Baza said the one at Engels-2 damaged two Tu-95s and the one at Dyagilevo military airport in Ryazan ruined a fuel tanker, killed three, and injured five. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukraine’s Soviet-made jet drones were shot down above air bases while trying to attack Russia’s long-range bombers. Stockpiled Tu-141 drones attacked. Handmade bombs. Satellite images show no severe damage or burn marks at Engels-2, although one Tu-22M3 bomber was damaged at Dyagilevo. Post-strikes, Russia fired 70 cruise missiles at Ukraine. Ukraine destroyed 60 missiles and Russia 17 ground targets. Another rocket impacted Moldova near Briceni. On December 31, Ukrainian military leader Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated air defences had shot down 12 of 20 Russian cruise missiles. Kyiv mayor Vitaly Klitschko said a series of explosions targeting infrastructure killed one and injured twenty, including a Japanese journalist. Drones hit Khmelnytskyi. Russia said soldiers fighting in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia will not pay income tax.
The Ukrainian military claims a missile attack on Makiivka in occupied Donetsk killed 400 Russian soldiers and injured 300. High-ranking Russian official Daniil Bezsonov blamed “American HIMARS” for the hit. He predicted 25 rockets. The Ministry of Defense reported 6 rockets and 63 Russian deaths. Russian mil bloggers say the barracks were near a weapons stash, causing the huge explosion. Benson wants cops “punished.” Ukraine General Staff reported 10 destroyed vehicles. January 3 saw 89 Russian Ministry of Defense deaths. Ukraine destroyed 45 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian army stormed Makiivka hours before Russia. Kyiv’s mayor said debris hurt one man. Russian governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed Ukraine droned a Klimovsky District power facility. The US Department of Defense awarded L3Harris a $40 million contract to supply Ukraine with four VAMPIRE kits in the middle of 2023 and 10 by the end. Russia and Ukraine swapped 50 POWs on January 9. the 36th wartime prisoner exchange. The Ukrainian Regional Prosecutor’s Office said that a Belgorod Oblast S-300 shot killed two women and injured a toddler in a Shevchenkove market. Mall damage occurred. German officials denied giving Ukraine Leopard 2. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger predicted combat-ready Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine in 2024. On January 14, Ukrainian energy minister German Galushchenko said Russian missiles hit important infrastructure across Ukraine. Two Russian S-300 missiles hit Kharkiv landmarks.
Current status of War
Oleksii Reznikov, the defence minister of Ukraine, said that Ukrainian soldiers would be trained on Leopard 2 tanks in Poland, even though there was no agreement to export the tanks. Russia says it is launching a new attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
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