Guinea-Bissau Votes in High-Stakes Election as Embaló Seeks Second Term Amid Coup Fears

Guinea-Bissau is witnessing a closely contested vote as President Umaro Sissoco Embaló attempts to secure a second term.

Polling began on Sunday for both presidential and legislative elections in the coup-prone West African nation. If re-elected, Embaló would become the first leader in three decades to win consecutive terms.

He faces 11 challengers, the strongest being political newcomer Fernando Dias, who is backed by the historic African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde—the movement that fought Portugal for independence in the 1960s and 1970s.

For the first time, the party was barred from fielding its own candidates after authorities said it submitted its documents too late.

Analysts expect a tight contest between Embaló and Dias. A runoff will be required if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote.

A Country Shaken by Repeated Coups

This small coastal nation, located between Senegal and Guinea, has experienced at least nine coups between independence in 1974 and 2020, when Embaló took office.

The president claims he has survived three more coup attempts since then. His opponents, however, accuse him of manufacturing crises as a pretext for crackdowns—allegations he denies.

Embaló has promised that, if re-elected, he will bring stability, improve road infrastructure, and expand access to clean water. Yet his legitimacy has been a subject of debate all year, with critics arguing his mandate ended in February.

Dias, meanwhile, has accused Embaló of intending to weaken Guinea-Bissau’s institutions in order to consolidate presidential power if he wins again.

In an interview with Reuters the day before the vote, Dias criticized Embaló for failing to curb the growing drug trade. Guinea-Bissau remains a major transit route for cocaine smuggled from South America to Europe.

“He is the head of government,” Dias said. “Nothing happens without his approval.”

Embaló denies any links between his government and drug trafficking.

A report published in August by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GI-TOC) warned that cocaine trade activity in Guinea-Bissau may be more profitable than at any point in the country’s history.

“Only the political will of our leaders can help this country fight this scourge,” said Jorge Monteiro, a 38-year-old customs officer who voted in the capital, Bissau.

A Deeply Divided Political Climate

Most polling stations in Bissau opened on time, and voting proceeded peacefully on Sunday morning.

About half of the country’s roughly two million citizens are registered to vote.

“The atmosphere is extremely tense, and the political landscape is deeply fragmented,” said Lucía Bird Ruiz-Benitez de Lugo, director of the Observatory of Illicit Economies in West Africa and part of GI-TOC.

“The opposition has long enjoyed strong popular support, but their campaign efforts have been very limited. This is not an even playing field.”

As campaigns wrapped up on Friday, voters remained sharply divided.

Saico Candé, a tailor, expressed confidence that Embaló could resolve issues related to food shortages and national security.

But businesswoman Berta da Goia said she was troubled by Embaló’s decision to dissolve parliament last year—a move the government claimed was in response to an attempted coup.

Polling stations were set to close at 1700 GMT, with provisional results expected within 48 hours.