Saudi Economy Minister Projects 5.1% Real GDP Growth in 2025, Driven by Non-Oil Sector

Saudi Arabia’s Economy Minister has projected real GDP growth of 5.1% in 2025, supported largely by expansion in the non-oil sector, as the Kingdom accelerates efforts to diversify away from oil dependence.

Speaking on a panel at the Future Investment Initiative Conference in Riyadh on Wednesday, Faisal Alibrahim said, “We estimate that by the end of the year, total real GDP growth will be around 5.1%, and non-oil GDP growth will be about 3.8%.”

Alibrahim emphasized that the Kingdom is undergoing a long-term economic restructuring, prioritizing diversification to build a more resilient and productive economy. “We are focusing on sustainable growth driven by productivity, not just natural resources,” he said.

According to the Finance Ministry, non-oil activities are expected to fuel 4.4% real GDP growth in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this month revised its own forecast for Saudi Arabia’s 2025 economic growth upward to 4%, citing increased oil production.

As the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia is undergoing a major transformation under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 — an ambitious plan aimed at boosting non-oil growth and revenue while reducing reliance on hydrocarbons. Government ministers often describe Vision 2030 as the country’s “North Star.”

However, lower oil prices and budget deficits have delayed several flagship projects under the plan, forcing the government to reprioritize, scale down, or postpone some initiatives.