Dutch Election Seen as Key Test for Europe’s Far Right as Geert Wilders Eyes Victory

Dutch voters went to the polls on Wednesday, choosing between doubling down on Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration nationalism—which toppled the previous conservative coalition after two years of turmoil—or steering the Netherlands back toward the political center.

With nationalist parties surging in Britain, France, and Germany, the Dutch vote is being seen as a crucial test of whether Europe’s far right can expand its reach or has already peaked.

Opinion polls suggest that support for Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) has slipped, leaving him neck and neck with mainstream rivals from both the right and the left.

Rob Jetten, the 38-year-old leader of the centrist D66 party, said after casting his ballot: “My message to everyone is that if we run on a positive platform, we can beat populists and deliver real results by working together with strong centrist parties.”

Major mainstream groups—including the center-right Christian Democrats, the VVD, and D66, which has gained momentum in recent weeks—have ruled out any coalition with Wilders and his PVV. That could leave him sidelined from power unless he wins by a decisive margin.

The first exit poll, which has proven reliable in the past, is expected shortly after voting ends at 9 p.m.

An increasingly unpredictable race
Dutch elections have become highly unpredictable, and forming a stable coalition often takes weeks or even months. Polls indicated that nearly half of voters were still undecided just days before the vote.

Christian Democrat leader Henri Bontenbal said after voting, “I think the main question is whether we can defeat populism.”

One of Europe’s longest-serving populist figures, Wilders is known for his fierce anti-Islam stance and has lived under constant security protection due to death threats. His platform includes rejecting all asylum requests—a move that would violate EU treaties—sending male Ukrainian refugees back home, and redirecting development aid from energy and healthcare subsidies.

In the 2023 election, Wilders led his party to first place and assembled an all-conservative alliance, though his partners refused to back him as prime minister. He eventually collapsed the government in June after it rejected his hardline asylum proposals.

“I’m hopeful for a good result,” Wilders said on Wednesday. “It’s important that we have a strong turnout—people need to go out and vote.”

Divided electorate
In Volendam, a fishing town near Amsterdam and a Wilders stronghold, many locals said earlier this week they were rooting for a PVV victory.

“We need to take care of ourselves first, and that’s why I’m voting for PVV—our own people come first,” said Jaap Schilder, a 40-year-old fish shop owner and local politician.

Some of PVV’s traditional support has shifted to the Christian Democrats, led by Bontenbal, who campaigned on restoring government stability and traditional values.

Analysts say Wilders’ shrinking lead reflects voter frustration with infighting within the previous coalition. His outspoken admiration for former U.S. President Donald Trump—and perceived willingness to test the limits of democracy—has also alienated some moderate voters.

“I voted for D66 because climate and education are very important to me,” said 21-year-old Jenne van Holland after casting her ballot at The Hague’s city hall. “And also because I hope PVV doesn’t end up being the biggest party.”