China’s Changing Primary Energy Mix by 2060

As the world’s largest producer of goods and raw materials, China also carries an enormous energy demand footprint. It is both the top global consumer of power and electricity — and the biggest emitter of energy-related pollution.

However, aggressive policies to expand clean energy output and cut emissions are set to dramatically transform China’s energy mix over the coming decades, shifting it from being predominantly fossil fuel-based to largely clean-powered by mid-century.

The following six charts illustrate how and when China’s primary energy mix — which includes energy used by the power sector, industries, households, and transportation — is expected to evolve between now and 2060, based on data from consultancy DNV.

Clean Power Drive

For more than a decade, China has been the world’s leading driver of clean energy supply growth. Over the next 25–30 years, its clean energy output is projected to more than double.

According to DNV estimates, clean power sources — which currently account for about 15% of China’s primary energy supply — will produce roughly 75% by 2060.

Output from solar, wind, and nuclear power is expected to rise by over 450% by 2060.

At the same time, China will sharply reduce its dependence on coal, which now generates 55% of its primary energy. By 2060, coal’s share is projected to fall to below 10%.

The Fossil-to-Clean Shift by the Late 2040s

Driven by the rapid rise of clean generation and steep cuts in coal use, China’s primary energy generation mix is expected to become predominantly clean-powered by around 2046.

Given that fossil fuels currently supply about 85% of China’s total primary energy, such a large-scale shift — even over several decades — is significant.

Already, electric vehicle sales are surpassing those of combustion engine cars, and electrification in homes, offices, and factories is accelerating at record pace. On both the supply and demand sides, China’s energy equation is transforming rapidly.

With old fossil fuel plants steadily being phased out and new clean generation sources expanding nationwide, China’s energy transition is expected to gain strong momentum through the 2030s and 2040s.

Nuclear Power on the Rise

While solar and wind have been the main drivers of China’s clean power growth for nearly a decade, nuclear power is now expected to become the fastest-growing clean energy source through 2040.

On average, nuclear generation is projected to increase by 56% by 2040 — from about 4,775 petajoules in 2025 to nearly 18,000 petajoules.

This growth rate outpaces the expected 53% increase in solar power and 50% in wind power over the same period.

The Decline of Coal

Despite the steady rise of clean energy, fossil fuel-based generation in China is set to fall sharply.

DNV data shows that coal production levels are expected to drop from around 101,000 petajoules in 2025 to just 13,000 petajoules by 2060 — the steepest decline among all energy sources.

Energy derived from crude oil and natural gas will also see a major reduction as transportation fleets electrify and the power system becomes primarily driven by nuclear reactors, renewables, and battery storage.

Global Ripple Effects

As the world’s largest energy producer and consumer, changes in China’s primary energy generation mix will have far-reaching global implications — especially for energy exporters.

In the coal market, China is currently the top global producer, consumer, and importer, accounting for about 60% of global coal-based primary energy generation.

As it cuts back on coal over the next two to three decades, major exporters such as Indonesia will face growing challenges in finding alternative buyers.

Still, global coal consumption is unlikely to disappear entirely by 2060. DNV data indicates China will still account for roughly 40% of global coal use by then.

China’s share in global natural gas and crude oil energy consumption is also projected to decline by 2060. The country’s total share of fossil fuel use for primary energy will fall from around 30% today to about 15%.

In clean energy, China’s share of global solar and wind generation will decline slightly as these technologies scale up globally.

However, its share of global nuclear generation will more than double — from 16% today to 36% by 2060 — as China rapidly expands its nuclear fleet.

Overall, China is expected to maintain its position as the world’s largest clean energy generator, with its share of global clean generation rising from about 21% today to roughly 26% by 2060.

The Changing Emissions Footprint

China’s energy-related emissions will evolve significantly in line with its shifting energy mix.

According to DNV data, fossil fuel use in 2025 is expected to produce around 13.2 gigatons of CO₂ — roughly 34% of global fossil fuel emissions.

By 2060, that figure is projected to fall to about 2.5 gigatons, or roughly 17% of the global total — reflecting how China’s energy transition will reshape not only its own production landscape but also global pollution trends.