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As France Faces Political Turmoil, Le Pen’s Far-Right Party Waits in the Wings
After narrowly missing a parliamentary majority in last year’s snap elections, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen declared that her party’s victory had merely been “postponed.”
Fifteen months later, that election’s outcome has plunged France into a deep political crisis, and Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) now senses its moment may be near, as President Emmanuel Macron tests the limits of his power to avoid another vote.
The continued ostracism of RN by France’s mainstream parties has ironically made it one of the biggest beneficiaries of the current upheaval. Watching the chaos from the sidelines, the party has been able to attract disillusioned voters from across the spectrum.
Far Right Leads in Polls
A new OpinionWay survey for the conservative CNEWS channel, published Wednesday, found that around 35% of French voters plan to back RN in the first round of a potential parliamentary election—ten points ahead of a broad left-wing alliance, if it manages to regroup.
While this isn’t quite a political landslide—RN’s polling is slightly below its 2024 peak—the party believes that if Macron dissolves parliament, it could secure or come close to an outright majority.
Party strategists argue that the tactical electoral pacts that blocked an RN majority in 2024 are unlikely to hold after months of political friction. The left-wing coalition between Socialists and the hard-left France Unbowed has collapsed, while the centrist-conservative “common platform” is on life support.
Although Macron is expected to announce a new prime minister this week, the stability of any incoming government remains doubtful. Analysts say a dissolution of parliament—a step Le Pen has repeatedly demanded—cannot be ruled out in the coming weeks.
Le Pen has made it clear she will not seek the premiership if her party falls far short of a majority. But if RN gets close, it plans to court rival lawmakers, particularly from the conservative Republicans, to form a governing bloc.
The party has spent recent months refining its candidate lists, screening out those with anti-Semitic, anti-Islamic, or racist ties that damaged its prospects in the previous election.
RN lawmaker Julien Odoul told Reuters: “The goal is to win a majority, convince the French, and show that our policies can deliver quick, tangible results.”
From Pariah to Government-in-Waiting?
Once synonymous with racism and anti-Semitism, the National Rally has steadily climbed in legitimacy since Le Pen began professionalizing the party in 2017, aided by the mainstreaming of anti-immigration sentiment. While still toxic to many voters, the RN increasingly sees itself as a government-in-waiting.
Le Pen’s own future in such a government, however, remains uncertain. Convicted in March on embezzlement charges, she faces a five-year ban from holding public office, jeopardizing her presidential ambitions. Her appeal is scheduled for January, with a verdict expected before summer.
If Macron dissolves parliament, the ban would likely prevent Le Pen from running again. Losing her seat would be an inconvenience, but it wouldn’t derail her political standing—she remains one of the most influential figures in French politics.
Bardella’s Rise from Le Pen’s Shadow
Should Le Pen’s ban stand and bar her from running in the 2027 presidential race, she has indicated that Jordan Bardella, her 30-year-old protégé and current party president, will take her place.
That might not be bad news for RN. The Le Pen name still evokes memories of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party’s founder, who was repeatedly convicted for inciting racial hatred and defending war crimes. He died earlier this year at age 96.
His toxic legacy has long haunted RN, contributing to its failure in two consecutive presidential runoffs.
According to a Toluna poll published Wednesday, Bardella would capture 35% of the vote in a hypothetical first-round presidential contest, compared to 34% for Le Pen. In May, Bardella led by five points, while Le Pen trailed by three.
Born to an Italian immigrant family in the tough suburbs of Paris, the energetic Bardella has helped polish RN’s image, broadening its base beyond older, conservative voters to attract younger, working-class citizens anxious about inflation and job insecurity.
If he becomes prime minister, Bardella has vowed to immediately halt the regularization of undocumented migrants, tighten France’s borders, and toughen prison sentences—a hardline agenda that could further reshape France’s already polarized political landscape.
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